Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun May 27
 the center of Alberto was located near 28.5, -85.8
 with movement NW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 991 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Anclote River to the Suwannee
River is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.8 West.  The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move
over the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and cross the northern
Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday.  Alberto is expected to
move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and move into the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast.  Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
overnight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible on Monday
across much of Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern
South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 280241
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018
0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE
RIVER IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  85.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  85.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  85.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.6N  86.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.2N  86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N  87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.8N  87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 41.5N  87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 46.5N  82.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280244
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no
stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center.
Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.  The
system is still not well organized with some elongation of the
center noted.  Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so
the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window
of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially
closed.  Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall,
which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and
the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions.

The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now
estimated to be 315/08 kt.  Alberto is moving on the northeastern
side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation.  Early this week,
a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough
will approach Alberto from the northwest.  This pattern should
induce a northward turn over the next few days.  Due to the recent
more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the
official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the
previous one.  Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been
changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday.  Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow.

4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 28.5N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 29.6N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 31.2N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 33.3N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 35.8N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 41.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 46.5N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018


000
FONT11 KNHC 280242
PWSAT1
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018               
0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 21   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 19   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
APALACHICOLA   50  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 29   8(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 83  12(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  5  19(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  4   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  2   3( 5)  12(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  4  27(31)  12(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34 35  38(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
WHITING FLD FL 50  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 36  27(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 42   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
MOBILE AL      34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics


Subtropical Storm Alberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 02:44:44 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 02:44:44 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Subtropical Storm Alberto Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 22:03:47 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Subtropical Storm Alberto Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 02:46:30 GMT

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at  606 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at  1102 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at  1003 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018