Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


750
ABNT20 KNHC 151730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Beryl, located about 400 miles north of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Subtropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)

...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Jul 15
 the center of Beryl was located near 38.2, -63.8
 with movement ENE at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Subtropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 21

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018  

254 
WTNT32 KNHC 152034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 63.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 63.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).    A turn
toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected
tonight, with this motion continuing Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Beryl should begin to weaken tonight when it moves over colder
water, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system late tonight or on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018  

255 
WTNT22 KNHC 152034
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022018
2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  63.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  63.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  64.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.2N  62.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 41.3N  59.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 44.0N  56.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N  63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018  

763 
WTNT42 KNHC 152034
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

Beryl is less organized than 24 h ago, with the cyclone currently
comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and occasional
puffs of convection in the southeastern quadrant.  The low-level
center has also become completely detached from a large-scale cloud
band farther to the east.  The initial intensity of 35 kt is based
mainly on earlier scatterometer data, and this data was also used to
revise the initial wind radii.

Beryl has been moving slowly eastward most of the day.  However, the
last few satellite images suggest a more northward motion is
beginning, so the initial motion is an uncertain 075/5.  A broad
deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving eastward across eastern Canada
and the northeastern United States should cause the cyclone to
turn northeastward with some acceleration tonight, with a faster
northeastward motion expected on Monday and Monday night.  The
track guidance has shifted to the east on this advisory, so the new
forecast track has been adjusted in that direction.  However, the
new track lies to the west of the center of the guidance envelope
and the various consensus models.

The new forecast track again keeps the center over the Gulf Stream
for 12 h, and the intensity forecast maintains the initial intensity
during that time.  After that, a quick decay over cold water should
occur, and the new intensity forecast now calls for Beryl to
dissipate completely between 36-48 h in agreement with the dynamical
guidance.  The low-level center is still under strong northwesterly
vertical shear, and microwave data suggests that dry air has wrapped
around the circulation.  If these factors prevent the quick
re-development of convection, the system could dissipate even
earlier than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 38.2N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 39.2N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 41.3N  59.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z 44.0N  56.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Subtropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018


718 
FONT12 KNHC 152034
PWSAT2
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022018               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Subtropical Storm Beryl Graphics


Subtropical Storm Beryl 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jul 2018 20:36:09 GMT

Subtropical Storm Beryl 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jul 2018 21:25:44 GMT