Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 172342
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical
Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Imelda,
located near Houston, Texas.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Some gradual development is possible over the weekend
while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Public Advisories on Imelda are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Imelda are issued under WMO header WTNT21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Depression Imelda (AT1/AL112019)

...IMELDA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Imelda was located near 29.8, -95.5
 with movement N at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 180248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Imelda Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...IMELDA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda
was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 95.5 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Imelda will move over eastern Texas through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system should become a remnant low by late Thursday.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the
Houston and Galveston areas.  Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This
rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Imelda.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 180247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  95.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  95.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  95.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.5N  95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N  95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.8N  95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.7N  95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N  95.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IMELDA.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 5 AM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 180248
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Imelda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The center of the tropical cyclone continues to move farther inland
over southeast Texas, with a motion estimate of 360/5 kt.  Earlier
surface observations along the coast indicated that the intensity
had dropped below tropical storm strength, so the Tropical Storm
Warning was discontinued.

Although it has weakened, slow-moving Imelda will remain a
rainfall/flood threat for at least the next couple of days.

This is the last NHC advisory on Imelda.  Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 29.8N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z 30.5N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0000Z 31.2N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1200Z 31.8N  95.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0000Z 32.7N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 180248
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019               
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JASPER TX      34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Depression Imelda Graphics


Tropical Depression Imelda 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:49:33 GMT

Tropical Depression Imelda 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:38:51 GMT

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at  658 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Humberto was located near 31.3, -71.0
 with movement ENE at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 951 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO BERMUDA BY LATE
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 71.0 West.  Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to
north-northeastward motion through Friday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and
north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.   Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday.  A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 180255
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  71.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 230SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  71.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  71.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N  68.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.4N  65.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N  60.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.5N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 44.0N  44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 49.0N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N  71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 180256
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Humberto has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a
large 30-40 n mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops.
An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
the hurricane found SFMR-observed surface winds of 98 kt and peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 111 kt.  Based on these observations,
the current intensity was set at 100 kt, which made the system a
major hurricane.  Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential
eyewall replacement are possible during the next 24 hours or so, but
strong southwesterly shear should result in a weakening trend to
commence on Thursday.  In 72 hours, the global models show the
system merging with a frontal zone so the NHC forecast calls for
extratropical transition by that time.  The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the motion
continues to be east-northeastward or 075/10 kt.  Humberto is
likely to turn toward the northeast and north-northeast at a faster
forward speed in 24-36 hours as it interacts with a strong mid-level
trough at mid-latitudes to its north and northeast.  Later in the
forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will
turn back toward the east-northeast as it moves in tandem with the
mid-latitude trough over the north Atlantic.  The official forecast
is in close agreement with the simple and corrected consensus
models, TVCA and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.

2.  Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 31.3N  71.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 32.0N  68.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 33.4N  65.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 38.6N  60.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 42.5N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0000Z 44.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/0000Z 49.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019  

000
FONT14 KNHC 180255
PWSAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BERMUDA        34  4  91(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
BERMUDA        50  X  58(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
BERMUDA        64  X  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:01:16 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:25:11 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17
 the center of Ten was located near 13.7, -46.7
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 180251
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.7 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h).  A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
morning.  The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it
moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 180251
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  46.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  46.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  46.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N  48.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N  50.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N  53.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N  46.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  

385 
WTNT45 KNHC 180252
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased
and become better organized since the last advisory, and various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 35-40 kt range.  However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates
that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have
not yet reached 35 kt.  Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt
depression for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 285/9.  The cyclone is to the south of a
low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system
generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed
during the next 3-4 days.  Near the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more
northwestward.  The track guidance is in generally good agreement
with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the
guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge.  The new
forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the
guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected
consensus model.

The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over
warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady
strengthening during that time.  The shear is forecast to increase
after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and
this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast.  The
new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h,
and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h.  It should be noted
that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.7N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.4N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 19.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 21.5N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 24.5N  70.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 180251
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   1(29)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   X(18)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  13(34)   X(34)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   8(23)   X(23)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   6(21)   X(21)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   4(30)   X(30)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   2(20)   X(20)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Depression Ten Graphics


Tropical Depression Ten 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:53:27 GMT

Tropical Depression Ten 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:32:19 GMT