Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210505
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic
several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED... ...BUT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SOON...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 21
 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.9, -58.3
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020  

641 
WTNT32 KNHC 210852
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
...EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED...
...BUT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 58.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.3 West.  Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion at a slower forward speed is expected through today.  A turn 
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward 
the north by Thursday night.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda 
Thursday afternoon or evening. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible 
today, followed by little change in strength into the weekend.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km) mainly to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on 
Thursday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020  

356 
WTNT22 KNHC 210851
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  58.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......380NE  80SE  50SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  58.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  57.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N  59.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...310NE 100SE  70SW 250NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.4N  60.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...250NE 140SE  90SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N  61.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE  90SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.1N  61.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.3N  61.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 110SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.8N  61.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 40.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 46.0N  39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N  58.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020  

935 
WTNT42 KNHC 210852
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during
the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image
indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin
at the time.  Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's
intensity is therefore set at 75 kt.  By definition, Epsilon has
rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt
during the past 24 hours.
 
As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge
which has built to the north of the hurricane.  This ridge is
expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of
Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone
back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.
Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north
Atlantic by the end of the forecast period.  The GFS and HWRF
models are showing some deviation to the east and west,
respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the
expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda.  However, given that
that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track
prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model
consensus aids.
 
Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional
strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected 
to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much
intensification can occur.  During the first few days, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and
IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models.  This
forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows
little change in strength for the next 3 days.  Some gradual
weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a
cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be
a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end
of the forecast period.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island as a hurricane.
 
2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 28.9N  58.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 29.5N  59.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 30.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 31.8N  61.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 33.1N  61.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 34.3N  61.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 35.8N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 40.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 46.0N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020


637 
FONT12 KNHC 210852
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   8( 8)  14(22)   9(31)   7(38)   2(40)   X(40)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Hurricane Epsilon Graphics


Hurricane Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 08:55:30 GMT

Hurricane Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 09:25:33 GMT